Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 0.215914 0.260047 0.313158 0.382479 0.471598 0.583740 7.378167e-01
2025-05-25 0.145981 0.191063 0.251340 0.339763 0.469556 0.658762 9.666571e-01
2025-06-01 0.110758 0.155499 0.220998 0.327690 0.505023 0.803872 1.384709e+00
2025-06-08 0.086946 0.129730 0.197587 0.319255 0.546962 0.990833 2.034381e+00
2025-06-15 0.070707 0.111465 0.181048 0.317724 0.605379 1.257792 3.154810e+00
2025-06-22 0.058452 0.096782 0.166738 0.316388 0.669468 1.604722 5.046249e+00
2025-06-29 0.047287 0.081438 0.147243 0.298423 0.692225 1.893740 7.472897e+00
2025-07-06 0.035010 0.061536 0.114118 0.239601 0.584647 1.725362 7.823165e+00
2025-07-13 0.030031 0.054625 0.105781 0.236151 0.630732 2.142916 1.282234e+01
2025-07-20 0.026741 0.050387 0.102105 0.243485 0.719218 2.884946 2.484231e+01
2025-07-27 0.024265 0.047330 0.100352 0.256009 0.841690 4.075312 5.626050e+01
2025-08-03 0.021991 0.044248 0.097784 0.265746 0.969821 5.713695 1.407191e+02
2025-08-10 0.019092 0.039395 0.090074 0.258156 1.031703 7.293252 3.421456e+02
2025-08-17 0.016516 0.034814 0.081959 0.246068 1.067305 8.982718 8.939012e+02
2025-08-24 0.014890 0.032215 0.078628 0.250300 1.207875 12.966861 5.230213e+03
2025-08-31 0.013498 0.029928 0.075609 0.254830 1.369999 19.218232 9.597820e+04
2025-09-07 0.012375 0.028117 0.073547 0.262885 1.586398 30.446063 2.602178e+11
2025-09-14 0.011365 0.026410 0.071362 0.269787 1.825758 49.416190 NaN
2025-09-21 0.010196 0.024058 0.066479 0.261397 1.922088 68.358915 NaN
2025-09-28 0.008509 0.020029 0.055143 0.215432 1.562432 53.023983 NaN
2025-10-05 0.007839 0.018761 0.052928 0.215943 1.720414 81.465115 NaN
2025-10-12 0.007388 0.018038 0.052418 0.225631 2.027176 154.899006 NaN
2025-10-19 0.007035 0.017538 0.052589 0.239839 2.466803 353.164498 NaN